Tech curbs, Boeing woes stand in way of revival for 2020 China-US trade balance deal

After Jamieson Greer, the nominee to become the next US Trade Representative, said this week that he intended to revive a trade deal that Beijing and Washington reached in early 2020, many China analysts began wondering how the bilateral trade imbalance could be addressed, especially when blanket tech curbs have been imposed by the United States and aircraft sales have slumped.

Analysts said China may need to “seriously consider” increasing imports from the US, as it agreed to do during their trade war in Trump’s first term.

“If the Chinese government says ‘buy more’, they can buy more,” said William Reinsch, a former US undersecretary of commerce for export administration. “Like a lot of things in China, it would be a political rather than economic decision.”

Under the 2020 deal, China committed to buying at least US$502.4 billion of US goods over a two-year period. It met just 58 per cent of that target, according to estimates by the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Beijing has signalled a willingness to expand imports, with Vice-Premier Ding Xuexiang telling the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last month that China does not actively pursue trade surpluses.