Rents may soar amid Hong Kong’s property gloom as students, talent immigrants spur demand

Rents may soar to record levels this year in Hong Kong, as a fresh crop of incoming students and talent immigrants spur demand for housing, according to the estimates of one of the city’s biggest real estate agency networks.

Housing rents may increase by 8 per cent this year, said Midland Realty. The average monthly rent of HK$36.76 (US$4.7) per square foot reported in June was merely 4 per cent lower than the June 2019 peak, making it likely for the record to be refreshed within the year, said Midland’s Hong Kong and Macau residential division chief executive Sammy Po Siu-ming.

Hong Kong’s rental charges had been increasing for four months in a row to reach a 54-month high in June, giving momentum to the rising trend, according to Midland’s data.

Rents had risen while sales prices had fallen in the city. Rents rose 2.6 per cent in the first six months of this year, while Midland’s Property Price Index recorded a 2.9-per cent decline over the same period in the agency’s calculation of deals across 143 private housing estates in the city.

The cost of leasing has risen for six consecutive quarters since the first three months of 2023 to the period ended June, due mainly to the attractiveness of Hong Kong’s visa-for-talent and various other incentive schemes since the city’s borders fully reopened.

The number of approved student visas in Hong Kong jumped by about 48 per cent to 62,100 last year, from 2019. The trend had been rising for three consecutive years.

More than 320,000 applications have been received under various talent schemes as of the end of June, according to the latest information released by the government.

The increase in demand has led to a shortage of vacant homes. The number of rental properties in Hong Kong shrank by 23.5 per cent, or 4,400 units, to 14,338 in early July, Midland said.

The gap between renting and buying will cause the rate of return of housing property to soar, especially when interest rates start falling with the widely expected first cut by the US Federal Reserve likely in September. This will lead to a new wave of purchasing power in the property market, Po said.

A student who recently arrived in Hong Kong from the mainland rented a 206 sq ft studio in Tai Kok Tsui for HK$13,200 per month, or HK$64.10 per square foot, and promptly paid the entire year’s rent in advance, agents said. The owner, who paid HK$5 million in May 2022 for the unit, is now enjoying a rental return of about 3.2 per cent, the agent said, declining to identify the owner and the tenant.

All of the 10 major housing estates in Hong Kong have seen increases in rent compared with last December, Midland said. The Caribbean Coast in Tung Chung recorded the biggest increase of about 12.3 per cent in June to about HK$30.1 per square foot, followed by Laguna City in Lam Tin, at about 9 per cent.