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Opinion | As Chinese graduates opt for government jobs, what of the private sector?

However, as the Chinese saying goes, “thirty years east of the river, thirty years west of the river”. In other words, fortunes can change dramatically over time. In an ironic twist, legal- and politics-related majors have now become favoured choices for prospective college students.

This category of majors is quite broad, encompassing distinct fields including law, public security, international politics and even ideological and political education.

How popular are these majors? China University Rankings recently released the 2024 rankings of the most searched majors during the college entrance examination period. Law ranked first, while international economics and trade now rank 44th.

Jobseekers gather in front of a state-owned enterprise recruitment booth in Taiyuan, Shanxi province, on October 28, 2023. Photo: CNS

Meanwhile, the popularity of police academies has also increased. In both Heilongjiang province and Shanghai, nearly 10 per cent of college applicants are vying for spots in these institutions. Perhaps more tellingly, many high-scoring students, despite qualifying for elite universities, are opting instead for police academies.

The Covid-19 pandemic’s lingering effects and government regulations have stifled growth in service sectors – traditionally sectors most likely to hire youth. In June 2023, the youth unemployment rate soared to an unprecedented 21.3 per cent, prompting the government to cease reporting the numbers.
Against this backdrop, the public sector becomes the premier career choice. Data shows the proportion of new college graduates preferring to work in state-owned enterprises, government agencies or public institutions surged from more than 51 per cent in 2019 to 73.1 per cent in 2024. The appeal is clear: a secure position, decent pay and favourable work-life balance.

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‘Let it rot’: surviving China’s high unemployment and cost of living

‘Let it rot’: surviving China’s high unemployment and cost of living

A former classmate of mine, who recently retired as a court judge, now receives a monthly pension of around US$3,000 – a stark contrast in a nation where one report suggests that nearly 1 billion people subsist on less than US$300 per month. Equally significant is the expansion of the public sector over the past years.

Research conducted by Ma Yingyi of Syracuse University suggests that recruitment through the Chinese national civil service exam soared by 173 per cent over the past five years. Provincial service recruitment rose by nearly 55 per cent in the same period.

The gravitation of college graduates towards public sector careers illuminates the growing popularity of legal majors. Graduates majoring in these fields might enjoy a distinct edge in civil service recruitment, benefiting from a higher quota of available positions.

This trend in China mirrors patterns observed in other developing economies, such as India and Egypt. This pivot is quite recent and pronounced in China, reflecting acute economic uncertainties and evolving social values.

A candidate makes last-minute preparations to sit for the Chinese civil service examinations in Hefei, Anhui province, in November 2011. Economic uncertainties and evolving social values are prompting young Chinese professionals to find stable jobs with state-owned enterprises, government agencies and other public institutions. Photo: AFP

As China’s talent pool increasingly gravitates towards the public sector, it might lead to a shortage of skilled professionals in the private sector, potentially stunting business growth and innovation.

The rising popularity of legal majors could trigger a brain drain from crucial fields, jeopardising President Xi Jinping’s agenda of bolstering China as a science and technology superpower. This reallocation of human capital could influence global trade patterns and investment flows, particularly in industries where China has been a key player or innovator.
While a robust public sector is essential for any country, a rapid expansion of China’s public sector and oversupply of legal graduates present significant challenges. To begin with, it intensifies competition for positions in the public sector. Some media have reported that for this year’s national civil service examination, the ratio of applicants to available positions reached a staggering 100:1 for many positions.
In an extreme case, a single position at the National Bureau of Statistics’ survey team in Ningxia province attracted over 1,400 applicants. The fierce competition could breed social instability, as seen in recent student protests in Bangladesh, where competition for limited public service jobs sparked a massive movement against the quota system.

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Several students killed during protests against civil service job quotas in Bangladesh

Several students killed during protests against civil service job quotas in Bangladesh

Moreover, it strains public finances. Some estimate the burgeoning government payroll now exceeds 80 million employees and retirees, consuming about 40 per cent of China’s tax revenue. This fiscal burden threatens long-term sustainability, particularly for pension systems.

Lastly, overstaffing risks bureaucratic bloat and reduced government efficiency. The influx of legal graduates into the bureaucracy could institutionalise a security-oriented policy structure, potentially nudging China towards a more repressive state.

While legal majors offer individuals short-term job security, they may exact a heavy toll on China’s economic vitality and societal balance. The ramifications of this shift extend far beyond personal career paths, potentially reshaping China’s economic landscape and state-society dynamics for years to come.

Yanzhong Huang is a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, and a professor at the School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University


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