AT PENPOINT
US President Joe Biden used the opportunity for introspection at his home in Delaware to take what was probably the most painful decision of his life: not to run for re-election. The circumstances were such that he was damned if he did, and damned if he didn’t. He backed out because he was showing signs of senile dementia. At 82, it was perhaps not possible to prevent signs of normal brain aging to show themselves. Orientation as to time, place and person can go, while there may be difficulties with language. Biden showed the sort of hesitations characteristic of language difficulty during his debate with Republican contender Donald Trump, himself 78. During a recent NATO Summit he mixed up names, showing an almost classic disorientation as to person.
It is not known if a diagnosis of senile dementia has been made, but it can be assumed that the medical staff of the White House would have administered the necessary tests. It is strongly possible, especially in view of his age, that even if a diagnosis has not been made, no one can rule it out in the future. If a diagnosis has been made, the prognosis does not rule out death during the second term, because while dementia is a sign that the brain is degenerating, it also means that other bodily functions will be affected, and as the degeneration progresses, death will also occur, between three to 12 years after onset.
That is what happened to President Ronald Reagan, who experienced symptoms in 1992 or 1993, and died in 2004, by that time confined to his bed, and after having retired from public life years before. However, he had left office in January 1989, and at that time he was just short of his 78th birthday, and was at the time the oldest person ever to have held office.
It is something of an irony that Reagan’s term covered the Soviet ‘gerontocrats’, the old men who succeeded to the Secretary Generalship of the USSR. Brezhnev was 76 when he died in office in November 1982, having taken office in 1964 at 58. He was succeeded by KGB chief Yuri Andropov, who was 68, and who died in February 1984, essentially the next winter. He was then succeeded by Yuri Chernenko, who was 73. He died in March 1985. At that point, the Politburo apparently panicked, and elected as Secretary General Mikhail Gorbachev, who was 54. He was destined to preside over the dissolution of the USSR.
Similarly, Biden has seemingly anointed Vice-President Kamala Harris as his replacement. After his tweet of endorsement, she should be a shoo-in, because at the nominating convention, scheduled next month to be held in Chicago. Biden had won a majority of delegates in the primaries. While those delegates will not be bound to him any longer, they will probably mostly vote as he wishes.
It would almost appear as if she is being presented as a sacrificial lamb to Trump, because it was perhaps decisive that donors were now baulking. Getting those donors back is a task in itself. She would therefore have to campaign initially against those who would probably not have supported her nomination in more ordinary circumstances.
She has very little time left to campaign, It may be that unlike other Democratic possibilities, she will not have to fight to establish name recognition, but the odds seem tilted against her.
However, her heading the ticket means that one of the main fears, which was leading Democrats facing contests in November, of Biden damaging other Democrats running for re-election, is removed. Whether or not Harris brings any add-on is not relevant at this stage. What matters is that she is not Biden. She is 60, which might mean a generational change, but still makes it doubtful whether she can appeal to young people. She is not that far from the age at which senile dementia strikes, after all.
She was picked to be Vice-President because she united so many minorities. Her father was black, her mother was Indian and she was a woman. True, she left Asian Americans and Native Americans, as well as the LGBTQ+ groups unrepresented, but then nobody’s perfect. How white male Republicans like Trump will react is another matter. Trump has already reacted, stating that she will be easier to beat than Biden. She complicates issues. Obama was elected because the USA was ready for a black President. Hillary Clinton was not elected, probably because the USA was not ready for a woman President. Harris has thus got two obstacles to overcome when approaching white male voters.
The USA gets its Presidents later than ever, because of the progress made in medicine. However, it also increases the chances of someone losing it while President. There is a mechanism for the Vice-President to take over, but as the past weeks have shown, it is hard enough persuading someone not to run, let alone displace the President. The USA faces the danger of becoming a gerontocracy.
Actually, after the presidential debate, Trump looked increasingly like a winner. While his own performance was miserable, it was typical. At least he showed no signs of senile dementia, though he is 78, and would be Biden’s age at the end of his term, in January 2029. The effects of dementia on his already ebullient character are truly unpredictable.
Harris seems to be the sacrifice made for other Democratic candidates. This was clearly implied by Biden saying that what he is doing, he is doing for the good of the party and the country. Even if Trump can’t be stopped, Biden by removing himself might avoid a total train wreck.
Biden has become the first US President since Lyndon Johnson in 1968 not to contest for re-election. Johnson was trying for a third term, for which he was eligible, but decided that the anti-war movement was going to lead to his defeat. He announced that he was not going to run after his won the New Hampshire primary by only 49 percent to 42 percent, in March 1968. His vice-president, Hubert Humphrey, then campaigned, but was not the frontrunner, that being Robert F. Kennedy, but he won the nomination after RFK was assassinated. Humphrey then lost the election to Richard N. Nixon.
Coincidentally, the nominating convention is to be held in Chicago, as in 1968. Again, the omens are not good for Harris. The 1968 Convention was marred by anti-Vietnam War protests. Instead of the coverage boost, there were unfortunate images on TV juxtaposed of protester-police battles, and the convention failed to be positive for Humphrey or any other Democratic candidate. A factor against the Democrats then, but absent then, was the third-party candidacy of George Wallace, the Alabama Governor, who drew off Democrat votes in the South, throwing many states into the Republican tally. Though Biden’s policy on Gaza causes much anguish and concern, riots like those of 1968 are not expected.
However, it will be a concern for voters, though not for uncommitted voters. It is thought that voters who are already Democratic ill consider the issue, but there is no real choice, just as there was not in 1972. Both Democrat and Republican nominees were pro-war, though it was the Democratic party which produced the only genuinely anti-war candidate,
Harris does have the advantage of being able to run on Biden’s record, just as he ran on the record of his President, Barack Obama. However, the circumstances under which she is being plunged in the fire is something the USA needs to think about, because one medical opinion is that Biden entered the White House while already suffering some symptoms of dementia. It is the age at which Trump is set to return for another term.
The USA gets its Presidents later than ever, because of the progress made in medicine. However, it also increases the chances of someone losing it while President. There is a mechanism for the Vice-President to take over, but as the past weeks have shown, it is hard enough persuading someone not to run, let alone displace the President. The USA faces the danger of becoming a gerontocracy. Are congressional ages going up along with presidential? That study has not yet been done, vital as it might have now become.
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