Deaths in China to reach ‘an unprecedented scale’, peak at 19 million in 2061

China is poised to face mortality on an “an unprecedented scale” in the coming decades, adding woes to its demographic crisis in terms of rapid ageing and plunging fertility, according to a research report.

Earlier this month, “China will face a peak in population mortality” became one of the hottest topics on popular Chinese social media platform Weibo, sparking heated discussions.

The world’s second-largest economy, which used to catch global attention for its demographic dividend, may see annual deaths peak at 19 million in 2061, Fudan University professors Zhang Zhen and Li Qiang said in the latest issue of the bimonthly Population Research magazine released at the end of May.

In contrast, the total population of the Netherlands was around 18 million last year.

“Although the massive number of deaths among the elderly are a natural outcome of the demographic transition, China’s mortality peak is approaching rapidly and on an unprecedented scale, posing severe challenges to individuals, families and society as a whole,” the professors said in the report.

They recommended reinforcing the medium and long-term planning of funeral services to prevent social conflicts, including “unaffordable death” and “expensive tombs”, and providing legal services for the elderly and inheritance disputes.

The authorities should promote life and death education and accelerate the construction of China’s hospice care system to improve quality of life, the professors added.

And although the sustained decline in China’s birth rate would eventually result in fewer deaths in the 22nd century, the problem of the rising number of deaths by the end of the 21st century would first loom large for China, the report added.

Ren Zeping, an independent Chinese economist, said improved medical treatments have ensured people live longer, urging society and the government to pay more attention to the accelerated ageing issues.

“It mirrors the fading demographic dividend, next to the rise in social dependency rates, the burden of raising the elderly, pressure on insurance, government debt and the decrease in passion for social innovation and entrepreneurship,” Ren wrote earlier this month.