China’s outbound travel set to soar by 10 million trips in 2026 – but halve in Japan

China’s vast outbound travel market is set for further growth in 2026, boosted by the spread of visa-free policies for Chinese nationals and a stronger yuan. But visits to Japan could plummet by nearly 50 per cent amid a political dispute between Beijing and Tokyo, according to analysts and industry insiders.

Mainland Chinese travellers are expected to take about 165 million to 175 million cross-border trips in 2026, up from an estimated 155 million last year, the travel marketing and technology firm China Trading Desk said on Thursday. That includes visits to Hong Kong, as well as far-flung destinations like Europe and Africa.

Turkey introduced a visa-free policy for Chinese travellers this month, while Cambodia plans to waive visas for arrivals from June to October. Dozens of other countries already let Chinese passport holders stay for short periods without a visa.

The spread of visa-free policies is a factor driving the growth in China’s outbound travel market, said James Chin, a professor of Asian studies at the University of Tasmania in Australia, who added that Chinese travel agencies were also “becoming more adventurous”.