China will be exporting 10 million cars per year by 2030, association forecasts

China’s auto industry is likely to sell more than 40 million vehicles per year over the next five years – including 10 million to the overseas market – as the sector still has “vast potential” for growth, according to an industry insider.

Cui acknowledged in an article posted online on Saturday that his estimate may be more optimistic than the general consensus, but stressed that China had the ability to achieve it as there was still plenty of room for growth in both the domestic and global markets.

“There is still vast potential for market expansion in China’s less developed regions, such as mid-western districts and rural areas, where car ownership levels could gradually surpass those in metropolises like Beijing and Shanghai,” he said.

China’s vehicle ownership rate – 250 cars for every 1,000 people – remains relatively low compared with developed countries, Cui pointed out.

In Europe, there were 641 vehicles in use for every 1,000 people as of 2020, while in the United States there were 860, according to data from the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers.

The Global South will “inevitably” become a key growth market for Chinese cars, with more buyers choosing cost-effective Chinese brands rather than cheap second-hand vehicles from the US, Europe, Japan and South Korea, according to Cui.