As SVB fails, there are extra potential catalysts for a systemic occasion
Discuss of the SVB Monetary (SIVB) failure changing into a possible systemic occasion for the market is rising.
The two-year Treasury yield (US2Y) (SHY) tumbled 31 foundation factors on Friday to 4.59% and is down half a proportion level in two classes. That is the largest drop since 2008 and cannot be attributed simply to slightly-lower-than-expected average hourly earnings in February.
Whereas systemic contagion hypothesis could also be getting approach forward of the info (“Simply seen SVB being described as a ‘Lehman second … give me power … hyperbole gone into overdrive right here … first rate sentiment indicator,” TraderX analyst Michael Brown tweeted.), it solely takes one catalyst to set off a economy-altering occasion. And there are many potential ones, in line with BofA strategist Michael Hartnett.
One 12 months in the past the fed funds charge was at 0% and the yield curve (TBT) (TLT) (SHY) was 40 foundation factors steep (now 4.5% and 100 bps inverted). Since then there have been 290 international charge hikes, which isn’t a prelude to a Goldilocks state of affairs, however a prelude to a “laborious touchdown and credit score occasions,” Hartnett mentioned in his weekly “Stream Present” word.
There’s already the looks of a credit score occasion in tech (XLK) (XLC) and healthcare (XLV) enterprise capital and personal fairness lending, Hartnett wrote.
That space appears much more rocky in the wake of SVB.
Different catalysts embody authorities debt, shadow banking and personal fairness, crypto, speculative tech, actual property, CTAs, collateralized mortgage obligations and mortgage backed securities, Hartnett mentioned.
There are “so many potential catalysts for (a) systemic deleveraging occasion that sparks coverage panic/finish of Fed tightening; reality is supply of occasion irrelevant (who named UK gilts as credit score occasion of ’22), merely that it’s going to occur and can trigger coverage makers panic (BoE restarted QE final Oct) and buyers should be prepared at that second to deploy money in new management belongings which outperform in period of upper inflation,” he mentioned.
At present the inventory market is sort of a “mad donkey,” in line with one dealer and there are “unhealthy ‘crashy vibes of March,'” Hartnett mentioned.
The “S&P500 (SP500) (NYSEARCA:SPY) (IVV) (VOO) in neurotic 3.8-4.2k buying and selling vary pushed by dependence on data-dependent Fed,” Hartnett mentioned. That ends as soon as the info is “unambiguously recessionary (e.g. unfavorable US payroll >-200k) and yield curve steepens.”
If oil (USO) (BNO), HY (HYG) (JNK), chips (SOXX) (SMH), banks (KBE) (BKX) and EM (EEM) catch a bid, the S&P heads towards 5,000, but when not it heads to three,000, he mentioned.
See shares susceptible to the Wealth Effect.