As China wields rare earths in US trade war, weaning off that reliance could take time

According to customs data released on Monday, China has already stopped exporting wrought and unwrought antimony metal – a material critical to the military sector – to all countries since October, including the United States, its largest buyer.

Yet, due to a surge in shipments during the first nine months of 2024, China’s antimony exports to the US saw a year-on-year increase of 20.98 per cent, to 379,720kg (837,139 pounds), and the export value increased by 108.87 per cent to US$7.44 million.

“There is a risk that China might expand its export restrictions on critical materials in the near term,” said Ellie Saklatvala, head of non-ferrous pricing at Argus Media, an independent provider of energy and commodity price benchmarks.

“In the short-term, it will be very difficult for the US to significantly reduce its reliance on China for critical minerals – it usually takes many years and huge investments to develop new supply sources,” she said. “The situation might create some leverage in negotiations with the US, but it is a highly complex issue, and the US is unlikely to give way easily.”