Analysts expect China property market recovery in 2025 after seeing improvement in January

New home prices in China’s top-tier cities rose 0.36 per cent in January from a month earlier, according to a report released earlier this month by the China Index Academy, a real estate research firm.

“The year-on-year improvement in sales value shows [better] market sentiment, particularly among homebuyers in large cities,” said Jeff Zhang, an equity analyst at Morningstar. “We foresee new home prices stabilising in 2025 and ticking up thereafter, but a recovery for existing home prices may take longer.”

In Beijing, new home prices rose by 0.09 per cent to an average of 45,621 yuan (US$6,265) per square metre, while prices in Shanghai climbed 0.57 per cent to 57,127 yuan per square metre. On an annualised basis, new home prices in the two cities appreciated 1.2 per cent and 10.7 per cent, respectively.

Demand for premium housing in Shanghai was particularly strong, according to a January report from S&P Global, which said 3,100 homes priced at more than 30 million yuan were sold last year. It added that 80 per cent of those were new units, accounting for more than half of China’s total premium home sales, it said.

“We anticipate a temporary rebound in the housing and rental markets following the Lunar New Year, as this period is traditionally a quieter time for real estate activity,” said Shi Lulu, director of Asia-Pacific corporate ratings at Fitch Ratings.