China logs 5% GDP growth in 2024 as exports, stimulus provide year-end boost

China has reached its 2024 target for economic growth, recording a 5 per cent increase to its gross domestic product despite numerous internal and external challenges – an achievement which may give Beijing’s policymakers the necessary confidence to handle what is likely to be an even more trying 2025 as US president-elect Donald Trump prepares for his second term.

Analysts attributed last year’s growth – particularly the 5.4 per cent reported in the final quarter, the largest increase for 2024 – to a massive export wave and a set of stimulus policies rolled out starting in late September.

However, they warned a similar growth target for 2025 – a strong possibility, based on benchmarks unveiled by backbone economic regions earlier this week – would require a stronger dose of stimulus, given Trump’s threats of higher tariffs and low domestic confidence.

“Setting the 5 per cent target is more about long-term policy needs,” said Raymond Yeung, chief Greater China economist at ANZ Bank. He noted that to meet the government’s pledge of doubling 2020 GDP by 2035, an average annual growth rate of around 4.7 per cent would be required.

With stronger economic headwinds on the horizon, the government will need to adopt more aggressive fiscal measures and continued monetary easing, he said, adding a 5 per cent target would be a sign of stronger policy support.

Those headwinds will intensify if Trump makes good on his threat of additional tariffs after taking office on Monday. His victory in November, among other factors, drove investment banks to set lower growth estimates – largely between 4.5 per cent and 4.7 per cent – for the Chinese economy in 2025.