Breaking | China trade surplus reaches record high with surge of pre-Trump exports

Buttressed by robust export figures, China’s trade surplus in 2024 broke records – however, the imminent second term of US president-elect Donald Trump is likely to make similar levels of trade growth a challenge in 2025.

The country’s yuan-denominated merchandise exports grew 7.1 per cent to a record high of 25.45 trillion yuan in 2024, maintaining growth for eight consecutive years according to customs data released on Monday, one week before Trump takes office. Imports for the same period – with a year-on-year rise of 2.3 per cent to 18.39 trillion yuan – were not enough to narrow the gap, leading to a record trade surplus of 7.06 trillion yuan.

Figures denominated by the US dollar – which will show some difference due to fluctuations in exchange rates – are expected imminently.

China’s exports were a significant driver of economic growth in 2024. Increases in cross-border e-commerce shipments – as well as higher overseas demand for electric vehicles (EVs), batteries and solar panels – have helped the country mitigate a slowdown in domestic activity.

However, the European Union’s implementation of tariffs on Chinese-made EVs and Trump’s campaign vow of 60 per cent tariffs on all Chinese goods have already begun to have an effect. Exporters rushed to front-load orders ahead of Trump’s inauguration ceremony on January 20.

A Morgan Stanley report earlier this month projected that US tariffs on Chinese imports will be implemented in phases starting in the first half of 2025, with the weighted average tariff rate rising by 15 percentage points to 26 per cent in 2025 and increasing by an additional 10 percentage points to 36 per cent in 2026.