China consumer spending to rise in 2025, but only modestly, Bain and Kantar say

However, the turnaround will be modest as it will take time for economic fundamentals to improve and consumer confidence to return, they said.

“The Chinese government has launched more stimulus measures and issued guidance to support household consumption since late September,” Bruno Lannes, a partner with Bain, said in a media briefing on Tuesday. “Although it will take patience and time for the stimulus to fully take effect, it is likely to progressively build consumer confidence which will later translate into higher consumption.”

Total spending in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector in mainland China dropped 1.1 per cent year on year during the third quarter of 2024, the joint report by the two consultancies showed, without revealing absolute numbers. The mild growth followed a 1.6 per cent year-on-year rise in the previous quarter. In the first three months of 2024, the number climbed 2 per cent year on year.

Over the first nine months of 2024, FMCG sales increased 0.8 per cent from the same period in 2023, a result of a 4.6 per cent increase in volume along with a 3.6 per cent decrease in average selling prices, the report said.